Matteo Arnaldi vs Lorenzo Sonego Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

• Arnaldi outperforms Sonego in second serve points over the last 6 months, with a 48.17% win rate compared to Sonego's 46.12%. Does this edge indicate future success? Potentially, as this stat strongly correlates with match prediction accuracy.
• Regarding return games, Arnaldi captures 42.65% of points on opponents' second serves, surpassing Sonego who wins 40.95%. For first serves, Arnaldi also has the upper hand with 26.99% over Sonego's 24.92%.
• Under pressure, Sonego has a slight advantage in saving break points, managing a 59.67% success rate compared to Arnaldi’s 56.36%—a critical stat for in-game betting perspectives.
• In terms of match wins over the past year, Arnaldi leads with 52.08%, whereas Sonego is slightly behind with 47.17%, providing an overall comparative analysis.
• On clay, both players thrive best, with Arnaldi's career win rate at 65% and Sonego at 59%. However, Arnaldi struggles more on I.hard courts with a 38% win rate, unlike Sonego's 49% on Hard surfaces.
• Analyzing player level, Arnaldi has mainly competed at the Masters series level, attaining a win rate of 57.14%. Meanwhile, Sonego has participated more in Main tour events with a 44.44% win rate.
• Considering opponent quality over the last year, Arnaldi consistently faced slightly higher-ranked players, with an average rank of 67.29 compared to Sonego's 70.11.
• If the match extends to a deciding set, Arnaldi has shown stronger performance by winning 53% of such scenarios in the last 12 months, contrastive to Sonego's 44% win rate.
• In breakpoint situations, Sonego exhibits better conversion, succeeding in 36.14% of opportunities against Arnaldi's 25.7%, substantially impacting live betting considerations.

Editorial Prediction (July 23, 2025, UTC):

Analyzing the recent form and performance statistics, Arnaldi displays a slight advantage in crucial areas such as second serve performance and return game efficiency. These elements strongly correlate with predictive success in tennis outcomes.

However, Sonego demonstrates a higher breakpoint conversion rate and superior ability under pressure when saving break points, indicating a resilience in critical moments that cannot be disregarded.

Taking into account their overall match win percentages, opponent quality, and deciding set performances, Arnaldi appears to maintain a minor edge over Sonego.

Therefore, with the data in view, Arnaldi is slightly favored to triumph in this upcoming encounter based on his consistent advantage in key statistical insights.